The Skeptic's Guide this week had a segment on "What are you least skeptical about?" I haven't gotten through the whole thing yet (I listen to it while I jog), but I thought I'd chime in with what I'm least skeptical about.
I diverge from the "scientific consensus" on a few issues. I maintain my skepticism regarding the obesity epidemic. I don't think weight gain is as simple as "calories in, calories out," and I subscribe to the "fat but healthy" mindset. But that's mostly because I have fat friends, and I support their right to be fat. That's not what I'm least skeptical about. I don't think I've opened this can of worms on my blog before, but I'll go ahead and say it. I am skeptical about the human contributions to global warming.
I will grant you that global temperatures are rising. I'll go the extra mile and say there is *some* human contribution. But I disagree very much with Chicken Little (that's you, Al Gore). If there is human contribution (there's that if), it will not destroy the planet by 2025 like Chicken Little wants you to believe. We shouldn't revert back to living in caves just because Chicken Little says so. I do support alternative fuel technologies, mostly because decreasing our dependence on oil will help get us out of global politics. And in man's history, technology has always fixed it's own problems. It's just a matter of time.
So why am I least skeptical about this? Because the science as of right now is inconclusive. There are several things which must be proven for Chicken Little to be right. First, that temperatures are rising. Second, that it is man's fault. Third, that it is changing at a rate that would be detrimental to the planet. Fourth, that it can be reversed. Fifth, that it's not too late. One (maybe two) of these have been proven. I can see the other ones being true, but the science doesn't support that conclusion yet. The science will come in time. There isn't a ten-year ticking time bomb that can't wait until the science is there. Cutting back in 2008 versus 2010 will not impact the age of the Earth, but will impact the economy if we cut back too hastily.
04 June 2008
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